Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Cuba

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $814,328$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{835,909.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(835,909.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83,642$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,129.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(84,129.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,309$ on 2020-10-10

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,717,932$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,944,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,944,594.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $214,370$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,804.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,804.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,440,579$ on 2020-10-10

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,666$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(124,897.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,482$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,651.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,651.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,632$ on 2020-10-10

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $182,767$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,691.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(142,691.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,661$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,086.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,086.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,249$ on 2020-10-10

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,146$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,572.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,572.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,504$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,599.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,599.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,711$ on 2020-10-10

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,439$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,079.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 190.7)}}\) (asimptote \(117,079.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,076$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,523.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 187.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,523.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,694$ on 2020-10-10

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,014$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,476.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(124,476.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,167$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,053.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,053.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,220$ on 2020-10-10

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,544$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,994.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,994.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,365$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,312.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,312.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,133$ on 2020-10-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 65%
Cuba recovered 55%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,951$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,115.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,115.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $887$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{886.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(886.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,069$ on 2020-10-10

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,948$ on 2020-10-10

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(95.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $385$ on 2020-10-10