Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $814,328$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{835,909.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(835,909.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83,642$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,129.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(84,129.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,309$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,717,932$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,944,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,944,594.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $214,370$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,804.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,804.3\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,440,579$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $119,666$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(124,897.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,482$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,651.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,651.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,632$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $182,767$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,691.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(142,691.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,661$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,086.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,086.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,249$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,146$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,572.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,572.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,504$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,599.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,599.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,711$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,439$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,079.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 190.7)}}\) (asimptote \(117,079.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,076$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,523.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 187.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,523.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,694$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,014$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,476.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(124,476.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,167$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,053.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,053.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,220$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,544$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,994.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,994.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,365$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,312.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,312.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,133$ on 2020-10-10